I’ve realized that I have been an avid observer of award-giving body results, and I have been fascinated by the politics behind it. One of the award-giving bodies I closely follow is the Primetime Emmys. I was supposed to just write my predictions in a Microsoft Word document, but since I feel that I had many things to say, I just decided to post my predictions in this blog.
So starting off with the comedy series contenders.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Will win: Transparent (Amazon)
Could win: Veep (HBO)
Dark horse: Parks and Recreation (NBC)
- Modern Family (ABC)
- Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
- Silicon Valley (HBO)
- Louie (FX)
Transparent, the new series on Amazon, leads the pack with 11 nominations, winning 3 already in the Creative Emmys last week. It won the Globes and Critics’ Choice early this year. And it is a very timely series that tells the story of a transgender in a lead role. The odds are definitely in its favor.
Its win could be spoiled by Veep, another heavy contender. Having lost to Modern Family three times in a row, Veep could finally win this year as some of the Modern Family stars who were usually nominated were snubbed this year.
The potential dark horse is comeback nominee Parks and Recreation for its final season. The TV Academy has snubbed the critically acclaimed show several times, and while the Emmys does not have the reputation of making up for lost recognitions, the comedy series nod is a positive sign.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Will win: Jeffrey Tambor as Morton “Maura” Pfefferman on Transparent (Episode: “The Letting Go”) (Amazon)
Could win: William H. Macy as Frank Gallagher on Shameless (Episode: “A Night to Remem… Wait, What?”) (Showtime)
Dark horse: Matt LeBlanc as Himself on Episodes (Episode: “Episode Five”) (Showtime)
- Will Forte as Phil “Tandy” Miller on The Last Man on Earth (Episode: “Alive in Tucson”) (Fox)
- Louis C.K. as Louie on Louie (Episode: “Bobby’s House”) (FX)
- Don Cheadle as Marty Kaan on House of Lies (Episode: “It’s a Box Inside a Box Inside a Box, Dipshit”) (Showtime)
- Anthony Anderson as Andre “Dre” Johnson, Sr. on Black-ish (Episode: “Sex, Lies, and Vasectomies”) (ABC)
This category is Jeffrey Tambor’s to lose. He has not won an Emmy, for shows before where he had been nominated at least twice (The Larry Sanders Show and Arrested Development). He has won the Globes and Critics’ Choice early this year, and while Emmy does not give a damn about other award-giving bodies, recognizing Tambor is a political statement in itself—love wins.
Watch out for William H. Macy. This is his second nomination for Shameless, and while the show has not received much love from Emmys, Joan Cusack’s win last week might be a sign that Macy is being considered for the award.
Perennial nominees Louis Ck, Don Cheadle and Matt LeBlanc might also pull an upset, but among the three, it is LeBlanc I am rooting for, after missing six times already, three of which came from our beloved character Joey in Friends.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Will win: Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope on Parks and Recreation (Episode: “One Last Ride”) (NBC)
Could win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus as President Selina Meyer on Veep (Episode: “Election Night”) (HBO)
Dark horse: Lisa Kudrow as Valerie Cherish on The Comeback (Episode: “Valerie Is Taken Seriously”) (HBO)
- Amy Schumer as Amy / Various Characters on Inside Amy Schumer (Episode: “Cool With It”) (Comedy Central)
- Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton on Nurse Jackie (Episode: “I Say a Little Prayer”) (Showtime)
- Lily Tomlin as Frankie Bergstein on Grace and Frankie (Episode: “The Vows”) (Netflix)
Amy Poehler is in no way a frontrunner here, and she joins the club of Emmy losers who always get nominated but just couldn’t make it. I am hopeful though that she will surprisingly bring it home tomorrow, after Emmy recognized Parks and Recreation for its final season in the Comedy Series category.
It is no question though that the frontrunner here is Julia Louis-Dreyfus, with three wins already for playing Selena Meyers. The Emmys love her to death, and Veep’s fourth season is no doubt praised by critics.
Pulling an upset (although I won’t be upset if ever) is Lisa Kudrow for playing Valerie in HBO’s The Comeback. This is the show’s comeback on air after almost a decade, and also Kudrow’s comeback in the Emmy acting category. Her last win was two decades ago, and if she could surprisingly enter the race here, why not also win?
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Will win: Tony Hale as Gary Walsh on Veep (Episode: “East Wing”) (HBO)
Could win: Andre Braugher as Captain Ray Holt on Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Episode: “The Mole”) (Fox)
Dark horse: Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy on Modern Family (Episode: “Crying Out Loud”) (ABC)
- Tituss Burgess as Titus Andromedon on Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Episode: “Kimmy Goes to School!”) (Netflix)
- Adam Driver as Adam Sackler on Girls (Episode: “Close-Up”) (HBO)
- Keegan-Michael Key as Various Characters on Key & Peele (Episode: “Sex Detective”) (Comedy Central)
Tony Hale had an amazing fourth season with Veep, and he submitted the tape that matters (where his character stoop up for himself in the confrontation scene with Selina Meyers). He has won once before, and this is the kind of role that Emmy rewards more than once.
Now in its second year of submission, Brooklyn Nine-Nine just seems to not appeal with the Emmy voters. However, I believe Andre Braugher could pull off a win. He has been nominated eight times before, and has won twice. The fact that his name popped here for the second year in a row despite the overall snub of the show is a manifestation that the TV Academy loves the guy.
My dark horse pick would be Ty Burrell who continues to bring the best out of Phil Dunphy in the Modern Family. The show is quite challenged this year and a sixth Emmy for the show would not be easy, thus diminishing Burrell’s chances here. But he’s my favorite TV character, so I would be subjective if I write his name here.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Will win: Anna Chlumsky as Amy Brookheimer on Veep (Episode: “Convention”) (HBO)
Could win: Allison Janney as Bonnie Plunkett on Mom (Episode: “Dropped Soap and a Big Guy on a Throne”) (CBS)
Dark horse: Gaby Hoffmann as Alexandria “Ali” Pfefferman on Transparent (Episode: “Rollin’”) (Amazon)
- Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy on Modern Family (Episode: “Valentine’s Day 4: Twisted Sister”) (ABC)
- Jane Krakowski as Jacqueline Voorhees on Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Episode: “Kimmy Gets a Job!”) (Netflix)
- Mayim Bialik as Dr. Amy Farrah Fowler on The Big Bang Theory (Episode: “The Prom Equivalency”) (CBS)
- Kate McKinnon as Various Characters on Saturday Night Live (Episode: “Host: Taraji P. Henson”) (NBC)
- Niecy Nash as Denise “DiDi” Ortley on Getting On (Episode: “The 7th Annual Christmas Card Competition”) (HBO)
This is as crowded as it gets, but nonetheless, I favor Anna Chlumsky to win, simply because her performance in the fourth season is an Emmy bait. The praise Veep has been receiving means a first win, finally is possible.
The frontrunner though is Allison Janney, the actress that the Emmys just love so much that they awarded her four times before for a single show, and twice last year for a guest performance in Masters of Sex and supporting performance in Mom. Janney is here to stay.
Gabby Hoffmann is the dark horse here. The TV Academy welcomed her this year with so much love, after receiving two nominations, one here and another for her guest role in Girls. She did not win in the latter, but she could win this one just for the fact that the show is as fresh as it can be.
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Will win: Veep (Episode: “Testimony”), Directed by Armando Iannucci (HBO)
Could win: Transparent (Episode: “Best New Girl”), Directed by Jill Soloway (Amazon)
Darkhorse: The Last Man on Earth (Episode: “Alive in Tucson”), Directed by Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (Fox)
- Silicon Valley (Episode: “Sand Hill Shuffle”), Directed by Mike Judge (HBO)
- Louie (Episode: “Sleepover”), Directed by Louis C.K. (FX)
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Will win: Transparent (Episode: “Pilot”), Written by Jill Soloway (Amazon)
Could win: Louie (Episode: “Bobby’s House”), Written by Louis C.K. (FX)
Dark horse: Silicon Valley (Episode: “Two Days of the Condor”), Written by Alec Berg (HBO)
- The Last Man on Earth (Episode: “Alive in Tucson”), Written by Will Forte (Fox)
- Veep (Episode: “Election Night”), Written by Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, and Tony Roche (HBO)
- Episodes (Episode: “Episode Nine”), Written by David Crane & Jeffrey Klarik (Showtime)